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    Jeff  Danziger The Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty sh danziger understanding poverty Jeff  Danziger The Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty купить
    Jeff Danziger The Flaw of Averages. Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty
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      Paula Danziger Mina, Amber Brown sh danziger understanding poverty Paula Danziger Mina, Amber Brown купить
      Paula Danziger Mina, Amber Brown
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        Heather Bullock E. Women and Poverty. Psychology, Public Policy, and Social Justice sh danziger understanding poverty Heather Bullock E. Women and Poverty. Psychology, Public Policy, and Social Justice купить
        Heather Bullock E. Women and Poverty. Psychology, Public Policy, and Social Justice
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          Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Poverty. Book the First = Крошка Доррит. Бедность: роман на англ.яз sh danziger understanding poverty Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Poverty. Book the First = Крошка Доррит. Бедность: роман на англ.яз купить
          Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Poverty. Book the First = Крошка Доррит. Бедность: роман на англ.яз
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            Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Poverty sh danziger understanding poverty Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Poverty купить
            Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Poverty
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              Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Book the First. Poverty = Крошка Доррит. Бедность: новелла на английском языке sh danziger understanding poverty Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Book the First. Poverty = Крошка Доррит. Бедность: новелла на английском языке купить
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              1039 Руб
                Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Book the First. Poverty sh danziger understanding poverty Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Book the First. Poverty купить
                Dickens C. Little Dorrit. Book the First. Poverty
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                  Understanding Expertise in Teaching Paperback sh danziger understanding poverty Understanding Expertise in Teaching Paperback купить
                  Understanding Expertise in Teaching Paperback
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                    Блузка Understanding the Queen S003 2015 sh danziger understanding poverty Блузка Understanding the Queen S003 2015 купить
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                      Understanding Instructions: In the Kitchen sh danziger understanding poverty Understanding Instructions: In the Kitchen купить
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                        Language Shock: Understanding The Culture Of Conversation sh danziger understanding poverty Language Shock: Understanding The Culture Of Conversation купить
                        Language Shock: Understanding The Culture Of Conversation
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                          Little Dorrit. Book the First. Poverty sh danziger understanding poverty Little Dorrit. Book the First. Poverty купить
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                            Миловидова А.И. Understanding the Law by G. Rivlin. Учебно-методические разработки к учебнику. sh danziger understanding poverty Миловидова А.И. Understanding the Law by G. Rivlin. Учебно-методические разработки к учебнику. купить
                            Миловидова А.И. Understanding the Law by G. Rivlin. Учебно-методические разработки к учебнику.
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                              Миловидова А. (ред.) Understanding the Law by G. Rivlin. Учебно-методические разработки к учебнику sh danziger understanding poverty Миловидова А. (ред.) Understanding the Law by G. Rivlin. Учебно-методические разработки к учебнику купить
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                                Little Dorrit. Poverty sh danziger understanding poverty Little Dorrit. Poverty купить
                                Little Dorrit. Poverty
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                                A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages “Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” —William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense “Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible.” —­Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

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